Topic: Politics & Elections
Political disasters can be fun to observe from a distance and the debacle that befell the British Labour Party yesterday was entertaining in the extreme.
The 2015 General Election stood the conventional wisdom on its head. The polls pointed to a stalemate, with neither major party commanding a majority and prospects for a coalition government uncertain at best. There was much chatter about the possibility of a deal between the Labour Party and the Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) and this, ironically, may have played a role in the ultimate outcome (see below). Instead, the Tories swept to victory with an outright majority, winning 329 seats. Prime Minister David Cameron can now discard his erstwhile coalition partners, the Liberal Democrats—who, incidentally, suffered a debacle of their own, losing 48 of their 56 seats.
But the big loser was the Labour Party which was wiped out in Scotland, losing all but one of its seats there to the SNP. And this disaster will echo down the years, for it represents a fundamental revision of the calculus of British politics. Every Labour majority since 1945 has been built on a foundation of some 40-50 Scottish seats and without them a Labour majority is hard to envision. England has always been more conservative than Scotland, i.e. more congenial to the Tories, and to make matters worse for Labour in England the SNP and Scottish nationalism are widely detested. The prospect of a Labour-SNP coalition government was exceedingly odious to many voters south of the Border and this undoubtedly hurt Labour in England. However that may be, with the loss of its position in Scotland the Labour Party faces a long stretch in the political wilderness.
After the triumphant Tories the SNP is the election’s second big winner—supposedly. Yesterday’s electoral outcome is said to have revived both the party and the cause of Scottish nationalism after the disappointment of last year’s referendum on independence. Well, maybe so, but it’s hard to see what leverage the SNP now possesses in Whitehall, with a Conservative government in power that has no need of the SNP’s support. The party may agitate for another independence referendum but David Cameron is unlikely to bow to any such demand. It would cause outrage in England and one must ask why the Tories would risk alienating their base to please Scottish nationalists. So the Cross of St. Andrew may wave on high and the bagpipes may wail but Scotland won’t be leaving the Union any time soon.
Finally there’s the populist, anti-immigration, anti-EU United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP). It actually came in third behind the Tories and Labour in terms of the popular vote but thanks to the peculiarities of the British electoral system this translated into only one parliamentary seat. Still, David Cameron will not be free to ignore the current of public opinion that the UKIP represents. He has promised to hold a national referendum on British membership in the European Union and is no doubt well aware of the political perils of breaking that promise.
So there you have it: Tories 1, Conventional Wisdom 0. American political pundits and prognosticators—take note!
