Topic: Decline of the West
The calculation was obvious enough: the Hamas leadership thought that (a) high civilian casualties in Gaza would inflame international opinion against Israel, (b) that the continuing rocket barrage would demoralize the Israeli government and (c) that Israel would be thus be forced to accept a ceasefire on terms more or less dictated by Hamas. And when a rocket landed near the Tel Aviv airport, triggering a wave of flight cancellations by foreign air carriers, the Hamas leadership traded high fives, believing that they’d scored a propaganda coup.
This calculation is beginning to look more and more like a miscalculation, due mainly to the position of the Egyptian government.
US Secretary of State John Kerry got a chilly reception in Egypt today when he arrived there bearing proposals for a ceasefire. The new Egyptian regime, which came to power in a military coup that booted the Muslim Brotherhood, regards Hamas with dislike and suspicion. Having been rebuffed by Hamas in his earlier effort to broker a ceasefire, it seems that President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi has decided to let the battle run its course.
As for the Israel, the suspension of air travel is likely to have an effect precisely the opposite of that which Hamas apparently expects. The Israeli government now confronts the necessity, imperative for both security and political reasons, to eliminate once and for all the Gaza terrorist enclave. This means not only the total destruction of the terrorist infrastructure but the root-and-branch suppression of Hamas.
Bottom line: John Kerry is going to find that his ceasefire proposals are as unwelcome in Israel as they proved to be in Egypt.